The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), have won under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, who is set to become Germany’s next chancellor.
The preliminary election results show the highest level of far-right representation since World War II.
The surge in support for the far-right party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), has raised concerns over Germany’s political stability and its relationship with the European Union and the United States.
Election Results and Turnout
With a record-breaking voter turnout of 82.5%, Germany’s CDU/CSU captured a majority of 28.6% of the vote. AfD, which has been designated as extremist in some regions, came in second with 20.8% and doubled its support from the previous election in 2021 when it received 10.2% of the votes.
In contrast, the former governing coalition, composed of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), suffered heavy losses in this election cycle. The SPD secured 16.4% and the Greens garnered 11.6%. However, after withdrawing from the coalition government in November, the FDP failed to meet the 5% threshold necessary to enter the Bundestag, Germany’s federal parliament.
Regional Divide: East vs. West
Fascinatingly, the election results reflected clear regional differences in voting patterns as the AfD performed strongest in former East Germany, where it received the highest proportion of second-ballot votes across constituencies. The region, once under communist rule until the fall of the Berlin Wall, has historically been more receptive to nationalist and populist rhetoric. The CDU/CSU dominated former West Germany and has maintained its traditional conservative base.
Germany in 1990 Before Reunification
Germany’s 2025 Election Map
AfD and the Far-Right Firewall
Despite its significant electoral gains, the AfD has limited power due to the “firewall against the far-right” established after World War II and intended to prevent extremist groups from taking control. However, with AfD’s increased representation in the Bundestag, many fear this firewall may weaken.
The party had only secured its first seats in parliament in 2017 and has since struggled to gain a platform within the country’s political system. The AfD’s policies focus heavily on restricting immigration, particularly from non-European countries and have proposed a controversial “remigration” policy that advocates for the mass expulsion of migrants. Additionally, a leading AfD figure in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, has twice been convicted for using a banned Nazi slogan, “Alles für Deutschland,” which means “Everything for Germany”.
On election night, the leader of AfD’s youth wing, Young Alternative, confidently predicted that the firewall against the far-right would soon collapse, a sign that mainstream parties would need to work harder to contain increasingly popular extremist views.
CDU Under Merz: A Conservative Shift?
Friedrich Merz, a long-time figure in Germany’s conservative politics, had originally left his role in the Bundestag when Angela Merkel became Chancellor in 2005. Years later, Merz rededicated himself to politics after Merkel stepped down from CDU leader in 2018 and the SDP’s Olaf Scholz won the 2021 election.
In his newfound role, Merz has pledged to steer the CDU back to its more traditional conservative roots after years of centrist governance under Merkel. There are potential risks, as shifting too far right could alienate centrist voters and amplify the far-right AfD in the process.
Germany and the United States
Soon-to-be Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has made it clear that he seeks greater “independence” from the United States. He has been critical of U.S. influence in Germany’s elections, particularly pointing to high-profile involvement from Trump administration officials. Following the widely publicized Oval Office clash between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Merz took to German media to criticize what he called deliberate U.S. interference.
Merz is not alone in his concerns as several European leaders have voiced their support for Ukraine and condemned Trump’s stance.
Germany at a Crossroads
As the European Union’s largest economy and most populous nation, Germany’s political direction will have far-reaching consequences, international and domestic alike.
With Friedrich Merz likely to become chancellor, the country faces a critical juncture: whether to maintain its centrist legacy, embrace a more conservative path, or contend with the rising influence of the far-right.
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